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            Changes in global mean sea level (GMSL) during the late Cenozoic remain uncertain. We use a reconstruction of changes in δ18O of seawater to reconstruct GMSL since 4.5 million years ago (Ma) that accounts for temperature-driven changes in the δ18O of global ice sheets. Between 4.5 and 3 Ma, sea level highstands remained up to 20 m above present whereas the first lowstands below present suggest onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation at 4 Ma. Intensification of global glaciation occurred from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma, culminating in lowstands similar to the Last Glacial Maximum lowstand at 21,000 years ago and that reoccurred throughout much of the Pleistocene. We attribute the middle Pleistocene transition in ice sheet variability (1.2 Ma to 0.62 Ma) to modulation of 41-thousand-year (kyr) obliquity forcing by an increase in ~100-kyr CO2variability.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available October 16, 2026
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            Abstract Proxy‐based reconstructions suggest that equilibrium changes in global mean sea surface temperature (ΔGMSST) are nearly equivalent to changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT) on glacial‐interglacial timescales over the past 900,000 years. However, the underlying mechanisms responsible for this relationship remain poorly understood. Here we use simulations from Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 and 4 (PMIP3/4) to investigate equilibrium ΔMOT and its linkage to sea surface temperature changes between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21,000 years ago) and pre‐Industrial. Results show that PMIP3/4 simulations generally underestimate proxy‐based ΔMOT. Regression analysis reveals that LGM MOT is strongly modulated by mid‐latitude SST cooling, with the Southern Ocean having a greater influence compared to other oceanic regions, thus helping explain why models with similar ΔGMSSTs exhibit significantly different ΔMOTs. Additionally, we find a strong relationship between simulated Antarctic sea‐ice coverage and Southern Ocean SST changes, with implications for constraining sea‐ice reconstructions.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available July 28, 2026
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            Abstract. We use a recent reconstruction of global mean sea surface temperature change relative to preindustrial (ΔGMSST) over the last 4.5 Myr together with independent proxy-based reconstructions of bottom water (ΔBWT) or deep-ocean (ΔDOT) temperatures to infer changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT). Three independent lines of evidence show that the ratio of ΔMOT / ΔGMSST, which is a measure of ocean heat storage efficiency (HSE), increased from ∼ 0.5 to ∼ 1 during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT, 1.5–0.9 Ma), indicating an increase in ocean heat uptake (OHU) at this time. The first line of evidence comes from global climate models; the second from proxy-based reconstructions of ΔBWT, ΔMOT, and ΔGMSST; and the third from decomposing a global mean benthic δ18O stack (δ18Ob) into its temperature (δ18OT) and seawater (δ18Osw) components. Regarding the latter, we also find that further corrections in benthic δ18O, probably due to some combination of a long-term diagenetic overprint and to the carbonate ion effect, are necessary to explain reconstructed Pliocene sea-level highstands inferred from δ18Osw. We develop a simple conceptual model that invokes an increase in OHU and HSE during the MPT in response to changes in deep-ocean circulation driven largely by surface forcing of the Southern Ocean. Our model accounts for heat uptake and temperature in the non-polar upper ocean (0–2000 m) that is mainly due to wind-driven ventilation, while changes in the deeper ocean (> 2000 m) in both polar and non-polar waters occur due to high-latitude deepwater formation. We propose that deepwater formation was substantially reduced prior to the MPT, effectively decreasing HSE. We attribute these changes in deepwater formation across the MPT to long-term cooling which caused a change starting ∼ 1.5 Ma from a highly stratified Southern Ocean due to warm SSTs and reduced sea-ice extent to a Southern Ocean which, due to colder SSTs and increased sea-ice extent, had a greater vertical exchange of water masses.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2026
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            Abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation have been well preserved in proxy records across the globe. However, one long-standing puzzle is the apparent absence of the onset of the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) cold event around 18 ka in Greenland ice core oxygen isotope δ 18 O records, inconsistent with other proxies. Here, combining proxy records with an isotope-enabled transient deglacial simulation, we propose that a substantial HS1 cooling onset did indeed occur over the Arctic in winter. However, this cooling signal in the depleted oxygen isotopic composition is completely compensated by the enrichment because of the loss of winter precipitation in response to sea ice expansion associated with AMOC slowdown during extreme glacial climate. In contrast, the Arctic summer warmed during HS1 and YD because of increased insolation and greenhouse gases, consistent with snowline reconstructions. Our work suggests that Greenland δ 18 O may substantially underestimate temperature variability during cold glacial conditions.more » « less
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            Proxy reconstructions suggest that increasing global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) during the last deglaciation was accompanied by a comparable or greater increase in global mean ocean temperature (GMOT), corresponding to a large heat storage efficiency (HSE; ∆GMOT/∆GMSST). An increased GMOT is commonly attributed to surface warming at sites of deepwater formation, but winter sea ice covered much of these source areas during the last deglaciation, which would imply an HSE much less than 1. Here, we use climate model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions of ocean temperature changes to show that an increased deglacial HSE is achieved by warming of intermediate-depth waters forced by mid-latitude surface warming in response to greenhouse gas and ice sheet forcing as well as by reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation associated with meltwater forcing. These results, which highlight the role of surface warming and oceanic circulation changes, have implications for our understanding of long-term ocean heat storage change.more » « less
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